Earlier today I watched on CNN the replay of the Trump/Vance/Zelensky meeting. The only time I can remember feeling as disgusted and embarrassed for my country was on January 6, 2021.  We could be on the verge of, at best, a major mess, at worse?  Let’s look at history and then you can decide.

On March 12, 1938 Nazi lead Germany invaded Austria in what is known as the Anschluss.   The claim?  Reunification of Germany.   In February 2014 Putin lead Russia invaded, then annexed Crimea.   Putin’s rationale?  “We must start working on returning Crimea to Russia”.

In September 1938 Neville Chamberlain met in Munich with Germany and several other countries.  They reached what is known as the Munich Agreement.   This lead to the invasion and annexation of the Sudetenland which was part of the Czechoslovak Republic.  Notably, Czechoslovakia was not part of the meeting.  Most of us have repeatedly heard Chamberlain’s words claiming that they had reached “peace for our time“.

On August 24, 1939 Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop signed what is known as the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.   This agreement included two key provisions, an agreement of non-aggression between the two countries as well as the division of Poland (it also included ceding to the Soviet Union control of several other countries).  Again, notably, none of the involved countries were a party to the agreement.  A week later Germany invaded Poland.  Shortly after that the Soviet Union did the same.  This directly lead to World War Two because both France and England had formed a military alliance with Poland, agreeing to defend Polish independence.

So why revisit this history?  Donald Trump has agreed to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.  This is a war that Trump vowed to end on day one of his presidency.  It’s a war he claimed Ukraine started (a lie).  He called Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictator (another lie).  Trump demanded that Ukraine cede control of $500 billion of “rare earth minerals”.  His demand has been described as an exercise similar to colonialism.   And today, when Zelenskyy met with Trump it can only be described as having turned into a shit show.  Trump was rude.  He showed an incredible lack of respect for the leader of a sovereign country.  He lied repeatedly.  One can only wonder if this was to further isolate Ukraine, to create the appearance of an adversary rather than that of an ally that we will defend.

And where does this leave us?  It has me wondering if when Trump and Putin meet it will be to work out a plan to divide Ukraine, much like Ribbentrop and Molotov agreed to do with Poland.  What will happen to NATO if the United States allies itself with what the rest of the NATO members consider to be an adversary?  And if there is a conflict, what will happen under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, the agreement that an attack on one member is an attack on all, the pledge of mutual defense?  There has been a lot of speculation that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine succeeds then Estonia, Latvia, and Estonia will be invaded next.  If the United States is allied with Putin’s Russia will it fulfill its NATO agreement to defend these countries?  And even if it doesn’t, what will happen when the rest of the NATO members rise to the defense of the Baltic countries?  What kind of fractured, war torn world will we become under a Trump/Putin alliance?

Is Ukraine 2025 a replay of Poland 1939?  One can only hope that things turn out better this time.

The Ugliness is the Hope.

Resist. Persist. Oppose. Propose. Be the opposition with a proposition.

Be the Pebble